What the future holds with regard
to superwinds
Transcript of keynote speech by Donald
Burfitt-Dons continued
What does the Future Hold?
The weather like the stock market will vary, and at the end of the day
to make any definitive forecast of what the future has in store for
us would be as likely to work out as an economist’s forecast.
Universities, institutions and government supported
bodies are continually developing new models to try and predict what
the future holds for us in terms of E.T.C’s and other types of
extreme weather.
The models are based on what has been observed, take into account predicted
atmospheric changes and push the button marked future to see what is
going to happen.
The problem here is that we can’t even predict
with any sort of precision what changes there will be in the atmosphere
five years from now, which makes a mockery of some studies I’ve
seen which confidently integrate data and forecast ETC frequency out
to 2170-2190. Yes, nearly 2 centuries away. What were those guys on?
I’m sure the funding kept them off the streets
for a couple of years but such forecasts are completely worthless.
After all, if the 1000 scientists who are the expert
human resource for the U.N.s respected I.P.C.C. have to revise their
outlook from one report to the next based on the actual outcome what
chance has a guess 180 years ahead being anywhere near the money?
In my opinion it is far safer to simply go with the
trend. Take a page from the futures traders. An old pit saying goes
a trend remains intact until it is broken.
Better satellite monitoring is giving us better records.
Broader confirmation of a trend gives greater confidence in its future
direction. We have been getting deeper core pressures in both ETCs and
Tropical Hurricanes. Greater stored energy on release will cause stronger
winds, more danger from ETCs in particular and threatens us directly
as a densely populated nation.
Because the oceans are warming up the odds are is that
the trend will continue for the immediate future at least. Nobody knows
what the final effect of global warming will be despite our scientists’
best efforts. At best it is only an educated guess. The physics of the
atmosphere is just too complex to fully understand its mechanisms at
our present level of knowledge. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t
keep trying.
It seems to us that it is inevitable that super winds
will sweep across our shores.
We should prepare ourselves now.
Thank You.
the
planet's way of recycling heat energy/
the first Brazilian hurricane/cyclones
outside the tropics/how
the GWA monitors hurricane activity/the
rising tropopause/ETC activity
since the 50s/l ETC activity
since 1990/ the effect of an ETC
on London /how superwinds form/
the impact of ETCs on aircraft/data
from 21 recent storms/ UK as a breeding
ground for tornadoes/
the impact on the insurance industry/
future implications /threat
of ETCs to Europe and UK
