The Danube Deluge
Tuesday 18th April
GWA Comment

Following exceptionally heavy rainfall in Eastern Europe the Danube is at its highest level for over one hundred years flooding low-lying areas all the way from Belgrade to the seaports of Bulgaria, and it is still raining. South Eastern Europe has seen it all before. The area is still recovering from last year’s floods and in August 2002 two river ‘waves’ raised the Vltava waters inundating down town Prague. At that time nearly 12.5 inches of rain fell over a two-day period. The odds of such an event occuring have been calculated to be only once in 500 years . We have seen exceptional down pours before. In 1992 images from Genoa transfixed us as fleets of cars sailed down the watery canyons of the Bisagno river and out to sea after drenching rain along the Ligurian coast saturated the hills surrounding the city. The runoff then swept through the city carrying all before. And every year brings new floods either along the mid latitudes or in the tropical latitudes. No better example of that is the chaos caused by the ever more frequent super hurricanes such as last years sinking of New Orleans after Typhoon Katrina did her worst.

Is a new pattern of heavier localised weather unfolding? That certainly seems to be the case based on empirical observation. That conclusion also passes the test of common sense. We all know that planetary temperatures are rising. Although the rate my be disputed by the differing factions of the scientific community, and indeed denied altogether by some, it would seem obvious that as the upper levels of the oceans transfer their stored energy into the atmosphere via radiation, surface water is evaporated at an ever higher rate too. More water vapour in equals more rain out. Time to check your flood insurance cover.