GWA Develops Hurricane Forecasting Index
30.1.07 A20
Donald Burfitt-Dons



Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! Rage! Blow!
You cataracts and hurricanes, spout
Till you have drench’d our steeples, Drown’d the cocks!

Shakespeare’s immortal lines from Act 3 in King Lear might have been written for today. Typhoon Hurricane or Cyclone—we are going to see more of them. A study by scientists at the Global Warming Alliance has concluded that the number and intensity of hurricanes over the next ten years is set to increase dramatically. Although 2006 saw fewer ‘named’ hurricanes the research clearly showed future frequency and violence of all strong storms is on a steep upward trend. We can also expect a similar increase in tornadoes as their formation too is associated with thermal instability.

By using computer analysis of past pressure patterns in Atlantic hurricanes and cyclones in the Pacific the Aggregate Energy Index broke out of the pattern which has existed since reasonably accurate records began back in the early fifties. Before that date data often relied on ships’ records and since 1988 earth satellite measurements have provided much more accurate information. After remaining range bound for half a century with readings between 45 and 95, starting in 1994 the AEI took off skywards. Since 1994 it has quadrupled to a reading of 420.

Of greatest concern is the increase in wind strength which would accompany hurricanes which have lower core pressures. Deeper hurricanes have been witnessed over the recent years, with new lows being established. In 1979 a record low pressure for a hurricane of 870Mbs was registered in the centre of Super Typhoon Tip in the North West Pacific. More recently in 2005 in the Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Wilma established a new low for that area of 882Mbs. The lower the core pressure the tighter the isobars. Wind strength is directly proportional to the distance between the isobars.

GWA will update the index as new data comes to hand.

Meanwhile hold onto your hats while the world comes to terms with the brutal realities of climate change just ahead.